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ASSESSMENT OF IMPROVEMENTS IN NWP

Workpackage number :

5

 

Start date or starting event:

+6

 

Partner code: Person-months

P1: 35

P2: 0

P3: 0

P4: 0

P5: 0

P6: 0

 

P7: 0

P8: 19

P9: 0

     

Objectives

An important step in the assessment of improvement in NWP capability is the comparison of numerical results with the occurred weather features. Part of the activity under this area will be devoted to identify and to analyse significant severe weather events related to major weather hazards in order to support the assessment work.

The developing of an assimilation cycle based on hourly analysis and forecast are expected to give a detailed description of atmospheric evolution; the prediction of severe weather phenomena, in heavily orographic environment prone to flood and flash-flood problems, could take a clear advantage.

Satellite data from geostationary orbit together with radar data are demonstrated to be of the maximum importance for the improvement of short and very short range weather predictions.

 

Methodology/work description

The work will be divided in the following activities: Severe weather case study, Developing and testing of a Very Short Range Forecasting system (VSRF), Use of Satellite data.

Severe weather case study – Partner 1 and 8 –Identification of severe weather cases. Analysis of cases identified. Studies of the impact of the remote sensing data on the analysed fields.

Developing and testing of a Very Short Range Forecasting system – Partner 1 – Developing of a methodology to link mesoscale analysis and atmospheric numerical model. Developing a module to reduce the noise impact due to the different topography and grid resolution used in the analysis and in the model utilised. Implementing a chain for VSRF purposes. Testing the VSRF system over the cases selected and analysed in the activity "Severe weather case study". Assess the impact of remote sensing data on the forecasted fields.

Use of Satellite data – Partner 8 - Satellite radiance fields will be input to a mesoscale analysis scheme of the latest generation using current METEOSAT data as a first attempt. Data from NOAA-AVHRR polar orbiting radiometer are also considered leading to the use of METEOSAT Second Generation (MSG) data. Multisensor studies of convective storm structure using METEOSAT, NOAA/AVHRR. Studies will be conducted on cloud microphysics effective radius, ice content, rainfall estimation and mesoscale organisation. VIS, near IR and IR data will be used in an attempt to gain insights not only on cloud top structure but also on the storms' internal mechanisms. Multispectral analysis will look at the microphysics at the storm top using radiative transfer techniques and models

 

WorkPackage Deliverables :

  1. Analysis of severe weather situations; Delivery date: 12,24.
  2. Set-up of VSRF procedure. Delivery date: 12.
  3. Verification of the forecasted field coming from the VSRF procedure; Delivery date: 30.

 

Contribution to Project Milestones:

M1

M2

M3 Analysis of relevant episodes

M4 Implementation of the VSRF system.

M5 Test of the VSRF system

M6 Validation of results

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