- AREA 3 - Flood forecasting
The objective of the area 3 is to develop and assess procedures for combining information from radar into NWP and from both radar and raingauge estimates of rainfall on discharge forecasts in urban and rural catchments.
Full exploitation of the areal precipitation estimates produced from stochastic models, raingauges, radar and NWP models is subjected to the better understanding of their spatial statistical and physical characteristics. The levels of bias and the spatial and temporal distribution will be assessed for each different estimation techniques. As a logical consequence of the results carried out an assessment of the sensitivity of hydrological models to the errors in their input fields is demanded.
A Monte-Carlo stochastic approach will be used to assess the sensitivity of a distributed catchment model to different precipitation deposit both in total amount and in spatial distribution.
All candidate methodologies, i.e. ways of using the NWP and/or raingauge data to improve radar estimates and ways of assimilating radar data into the NWP models, will be tested here by using the resulting combined rainfield estimates as inputs to the hydrological catchment models and comparing the full hydrograph of the forecasted flood with the measured hydrograph. In all cases the most important criterion will be the performance in estimating flood discharges in accordance with the end-user requirements determined in WP 11. Subsequently, guidance on the most useful combinations of forecast lead-time and accuracy will be determined in consultation with the end-user group.
Two additional WPs embrace to crucial aspect of CARPE DIEM.
The involvement of End-Users, from the proposal stage, is a key component of CARPE DIEM. The End-Users panel has the responsibility of defining the minimum requirements for the outcomes of the project. The evaluation of project results will be done by the End-Users panel in real-time and their feedback will be used to adjust the research work.
A dissemination workpackage is foreseen to spread widely the CARPE DIEM outcomes.